Forecasting the democratic republic of the Congo macroeconomic data with the Bayesian vector autoregressive models

The purpose of this paper is to emphasize the role of the Bayesian Vector Autoregressive models (VAR) in macroeconomic analysis and forecasting. To help the policy-makers to do better, the Bayesian VAR models are considered more robust and valuable because they put in the model the mathematician’s beliefs or priors and the data. By using BVAR(1), we get the main results: (i)the best out sample point forecasts; (ii) the exchange rate shock contributes more to inflation; (iii) the inflation shock has high effects on exchange rate innovation. These results are due to the dollarization of this small open economy.