FORECASTING OF AGRICULTURAL TAX REVENUES

This scientific article considers the current problem of forecasting tax revenues from the unified agricultural tax in Russia. Forecasting tax revenues is an important task for government and administrative bodies, since it allows determining the volume of tax revenues to the budget system, planning expenses and forming an effective tax policy. Over the past 5 years, the amount of received unified agricultural tax has increased by 55%, and the calculated tax and income by 80%, while the number of its payers has decreased by 19% with a tax collection rate of up to 90%. Using extrapolation and direct calculation methods, tax revenues from the unified agricultural tax were forecasted until 2030. The study is aimed at analyzing the dynamics of tax revenues from the unified agricultural tax and identifying the factors influencing their amount. The results of the study show that the amount of tax revenues from the unified agricultural tax depends on such factors as the dynamics of the tax base and the amount of actual tax revenues, the level of tax collection, the projected amount of profit, the amount of refunds and lost income from benefits. Understanding their interrelations contributes to a more accurate analysis of the current situation in the agricultural sector. The study emphasizes the importance of correct forecasting of tax revenues for the sustainable development of the agricultural sector and the economy as a whole, optimization of the tax burden on agricultural producers.