Prediction of the Habitat Suitability of Key Parasitoids of Spodoptera frugiperda (JE Smith) (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) in Ethiopia: Prospects for Bio-control

The fall armyworm, Spodoptera frugiperda (JE Smith) (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae),has become an important pest in recently invaded regions, including Ethiopia, implying theneed for effective and eco-friendly tactics against the pest invasion. The present study is thefirst simulation effort to characterize the habitat suitability of the key parasitoids of S.frugiperda, namely Chelonus insularis, Cotesia flavipes, Megaselia scalaris, Telenomus remus, andTrichogramma pretiosum, to be considered for biological control in Ethiopia by using amachine-learning software, the maximum entropy (Maxent). The MaxEnt modeling providedthe ROC curve (AUC) values of ≤ 0.855 for our models, justifying the high predictionaccuracy of the models for all the studied parasitoids. The bioclimatic variables, particularlyMean Temperature of Wettest Quarter (bio8), Isothermality (bio3), Precipitation of WettestMonth (bio13), and Precipitation of Warmest Quarter (bio18), were the most dominantvariables regulating the habitat suitability of all of the parasitoids in Ethiopia. Modelpredictions showed particularly high establishment capacity of all five studied parasitoids inareas heavily affected by S. frugiperda, including large portions of eastern, western, northern,southern, south-western, and central parts of Ethiopia, both under the current and futureclimate conditions. Hence, these habitats can be priority locations for implementing S.frugiperda biocontrol efforts. The suitable habitats of the parasitoids would show a slightreduction under the future conditions as influenced by global warming. Our study providesnew data to guide decision-making for biological based medium and long-term managementof S. frugiperda in Ethiopia