Impact of open ocean variability on the U.S. Mid-Atlantic coasts and bays

Recent studies (see references below) examined the impact of the Atlantic Ocean variability and climate change on the U.S. East Coast and the major bays of the Mid-Atlantic Bight: the Chesapeake Bay, the Delaware Bay and the New York Bay. Variations in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and the Gulf Stream (GS) can affect the weather and the climate over coastal regions – a remote impact that is difficult to predict. Analysis of various observations, including coastal sea level, water temperature in bays and estuaries, river discharges and ocean currents show that significant portion of the coastal variability is linked to remote forcing influenced by NAO, AMOC and the GS. For example, surface currents from high-frequency radar measurements near the mouth of the three Mid-Atlantic bays mention above show variations that are driven by a combination of local estuarine dynamics, coastal wind-driven dynamics and remote forcing from the Atlantic Ocean. AMOC and the GS can affect water exchange between bays and the open ocean, and variations in NAO shift the wind pattern and storm track over the coast. Climate change over the northeastern U.S. caused increased precipitation and river discharges into bays and resulted in increased outflows from bays toward the Atlantic Ocean. The impact of extreme events such as hurricanes and winter storms can also be seen in the outflows from bays. A better understanding of remote forcing on the coast will help in predicting impacts of climate change and coastal sea level rise on the highly populated U.S. coasts.References: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10236-022-01536-6, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10236-024-01605-y,  https://doi.org/10.1007/s10236-024-01656-1.