Beyond the Tailpipe: Market-Wide Analysis of All US Vehicles Shows the Climate Benefits of Electrification

Abstract Light-duty vehicle (LDV) electrification is a key decarbonization strategy for the United States transportation sector. To evaluate its effectiveness, life cycle assessment needs to consider the full diversity of vehicles on the market. We conduct a life cycle carbon footprint of all model year 2023 LDVs produced for sale in the US and compare the results across vehicle types and powertrains (internal combustion engine, hybrid, plug-in hybrid and battery electric). Under nearly all modeled scenarios, including varying ambient climate, electricity grids, and battery replacement rates, battery electric vehicles reduce greenhouse gases relative to nearly every internal combustion engine vehicle sold. Market-wide electrification in 2023 would have reduced emissions by 54% (750 Tg CO₂e), with 76% of that reduction from electrifying light trucks, due to a combined effect of low rates of light truck electrification and the relatively larger emissions reduction potential from replacing large light trucks with their electric counterparts.