Concept-drifts adaptation for machine learning EEG epilepsy seizure prediction

Abstract Seizure prediction remains a challenge, with approximately 30% of patients unresponsive to conventional treatments. Addressing this issue is crucial for improving patients’ quality of life, as timely intervention can mitigate the impact of seizures. In this research field, it is critical to identify the preictal interval, the transition from regular brain activity to a seizure. While previous studies have explored various Electroencephalogram (EEG) based methodologies for prediction, few have been clinically applicable. Recent studies have underlined the dynamic nature of EEG data, characterised by data changes with time, known as concept drifts, highlighting the need for automated methods to detect and adapt to these changes. In this study, we investigate the effectiveness of automatic concept drift adaptation methods in seizure prediction. Three patient-specific seizure prediction approaches with a 10-minute prediction horizon are compared: a seizure prediction algorithm incorporating a window adjustment method by optimising performance with Support Vector Machines (Backwards-Landmark Window), a seizure prediction algorithm incorporating a data-batch (seizures) selection method using a logistic regression (Seizure-batch Regression), and a seizure prediction algorithm with a dynamic integration of classifiers (Dynamic Weighted Ensemble). These methods incorporate a retraining process after each seizure and use a combination of univariate linear features and SVM classifiers. The Firing Power was used as a post-processing technique to generate alarms before seizures. These methodologies were compared with a control approach based on the typical machine learning pipeline, considering a group of 37 patients with Temporal Lobe Epilepsy from the EPILEPSIAE database. The best-performing approach (Backwards-Landmark Window) achieved results of 0.75 ± 0.33 for sensitivity and 1.03 ± 1.00 for false positive rate per hour. This new strategy performed above chance for 89% of patients with the surrogate predictor, whereas the control approach only validated 46%.