North Korea after Kim Jong-il: Can We Hope for Change?

North Korea today is in a state of power transition that could lead to new dangers, instability, and uncertainty. This was not the case during the first succession. Kim Jong-Il had been carefully groomed by his father to succeed him. The process had gone on for twenty years and was directed by Kim Il-Sung himself. In North Korea, all political power derives from Kim Il-Sung’s reign. At the present, North Korea refers to itself as “Kim Il-Sung’s nation.” In 1998, the North Korean Constitution was changed to enshrine Kim Il-Sung as the “eternal president,” even though he had been dead for four years. Acting in his father’s name, Kim Jong-Il was able to seize and retain power. His son, Kim Il-Sung’s grandson, must now do the same thing. The regime knows that this basis for power succession cannot be used so easily again, and is rushing to tie the young man to his grandfather’s political legacy. Even though it is clear that Kim Jong-Il has named his third son, Kim Jong-Un, as the heir, there is no sure guarantee this time that it will work well. Depending on how the succession proceeds and taking into account many unpredictable developments, a number of possibilities will arise. Before the “next leader” of North Korea takes over, there may be turmoil, confusion, and unexpected rivalries.