Javascript must be enabled to continue!
Population Flow and Epidemic Spread: Direct Impact and Spatial Spillover Effect
View through CrossRef
Based on population migration data from Baidu and the spatial Durbin model, this paper examines the impact of population mobility on the spatial transmission of COVID-19 and provides a basis for forecasting epidemic transmission and guiding public health intervention plans from the perspectives of population mobility and geographical space. The results show that epidemic spreading displays a clear spatial pattern that includes not only spreading from Wuhan to the surrounding areas but also secondary transmission in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta regions through population flows. The epidemic degree in each area is directly affected by the number of population inflows from Wuhan and indirectly affected by the spatial spillover effect from other areas. Due to the lack of strict restrictions on population flows, the spatial spillover effect in areas outside Hubei gradually strengthened after the closure of Wuhan and exceeded the direct effect, and the intensity of population flows within Wuhan had a significant impact on the spread of the epidemic. Without considering the spatial spillover effect, the model will overestimate the impact of population inflows in Wuhan on the local epidemic and underestimate the total effect of regional patterns on epidemic transmission.
Title: Population Flow and Epidemic Spread: Direct Impact and Spatial Spillover Effect
Description:
Based on population migration data from Baidu and the spatial Durbin model, this paper examines the impact of population mobility on the spatial transmission of COVID-19 and provides a basis for forecasting epidemic transmission and guiding public health intervention plans from the perspectives of population mobility and geographical space.
The results show that epidemic spreading displays a clear spatial pattern that includes not only spreading from Wuhan to the surrounding areas but also secondary transmission in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta regions through population flows.
The epidemic degree in each area is directly affected by the number of population inflows from Wuhan and indirectly affected by the spatial spillover effect from other areas.
Due to the lack of strict restrictions on population flows, the spatial spillover effect in areas outside Hubei gradually strengthened after the closure of Wuhan and exceeded the direct effect, and the intensity of population flows within Wuhan had a significant impact on the spread of the epidemic.
Without considering the spatial spillover effect, the model will overestimate the impact of population inflows in Wuhan on the local epidemic and underestimate the total effect of regional patterns on epidemic transmission.
Related Results
The effect of spatial structure of urban agglomerations on green development: Evidence from China
The effect of spatial structure of urban agglomerations on green development: Evidence from China
Abstract
Spatial structure reflects physical urban agglomerations development and may have economic, societal, and environmental spillover effects. As China pays more atten...
Stress Testing Spillover Risk in Mutual Funds
Stress Testing Spillover Risk in Mutual Funds
We develop a framework to quantify the vulnerability of mutual funds to fire-sale spillover losses. We account for the first-mover incentive that results from the mismatch between ...
Phonation threshold pressure: A missing link in glottal aerodynamics.
Phonation threshold pressure: A missing link in glottal aerodynamics.
Phonation threshold pressure has previously been defined as the minimum lung pressure required to initiate phonation. By modeling the dependence of this pressure on fundamental fre...
Phonation threshold pressure: A missing link in glottal aerodynamics
Phonation threshold pressure: A missing link in glottal aerodynamics
Phonation threshold pressure has previously been defined as the minimum lung pressure required to initiate phonation. By modeling the dependence of this pressure on fundamental fre...
Examining face-mask usage as an effective strategy to control COVID-19 spread
Examining face-mask usage as an effective strategy to control COVID-19 spread
AbstractCOVID-19’s high virus transmission rates have caused a pandemic that is exacerbated by the high rates of asymptomatic and presymptomatic infections. These factors suggest t...
Socio-spatial Disparities and the Crisis: Swimming Pools as a Proxy of Class Segregation in Athens
Socio-spatial Disparities and the Crisis: Swimming Pools as a Proxy of Class Segregation in Athens
AbstractInitially considered a ‘luxury’ good and now becoming a more popular and diffused landmark, the spatial distribution of residential swimming pools reflects the socio-spatia...
Music intervention pilot study
Music intervention pilot study
Older adults facing cognitive challenges may face a decline in spatial skills and as a result may become less confident in navigating their environment. Spatial training has been s...
Multispecies and Watershed Approaches to Freshwater Fish Conservation
Multispecies and Watershed Approaches to Freshwater Fish Conservation
<em>Abstract</em>.—Alteration of environmental flows is a growing concern within the conservation community as human demand for water increases. Alteration of the natur...
Recent Results
Farinel’s Ground and other ‘Follyes’ in English sources of the late 17th and early 18th centuries
Farinel’s Ground and other ‘Follyes’ in English sources of the late 17th and early 18th centuries
Abstract
This article is the result of a comprehensive study of folia grounds—usually known as Farinel’s Ground in England—published, copied in or otherwise connecte...
Visual processing abilities associated with piano music sight-reading expertise
Visual processing abilities associated with piano music sight-reading expertise
Visual processing expertise in musicians has traditionally focused on the difference between expert and non-expert music sight-readers. More generally, differences between musician...
Del PIE DE REY a la tecnología 5G.
Del PIE DE REY a la tecnología 5G.
El artículo explora la importancia del cuerpo como una condición ineludible para hacer arquitectura y ciudad, debido a que va enlazado a un conjunto de intervenciones de múltiples ...