Unintended Demographic Effects of Educational Affirmative Action in China

Affirmative action aims to support underrepresented groups but can also shape how exogamous parents identify their children. Leveraging affirmative action in higher education jointly with the 1999 higher education expansion in China, this paper examines the unintended demographic consequences of affirmative action. A difference-indifferences analysis shows that the expanded higher education increased the likelihood of minority identification among children of Han fathers and minority mothers by 4.0 percentage points (equivalent to 19,000 minority newborns every year), with no impacts for children of minority fathers and Han mothers. Event studies reveal a pronounced impact for boys, suggesting that identity-concerned parents respond differently to economic incentives for sons and daughters. Within-household and province-level analyses further confirm the impact of ethnic affirmative action on ethnic identity choice.