Conceptual Framework for Climate Vulnerability and Conflicts in the Coastal Districts of Thatta and Sujawal, Sindh, Pakistan

This paper explores the linkages between climate change, vulnerability and conflict in the coastal communities of districts Thatta and Sujawal in Sindh province of Pakistan. This coastal region is highly vulnerable to climate change and is exposed to several climatic issues and their implications. Trend analysis shows that during 1961-2020, the average maximum temperature of district Thatta and Sujawal varied from 30.9 to 34.6oC having an overall mean of 32.3oC. Similarly, the minimum average temperature of district Thatta extended between 19.6 to 28.0oC with an overall mean minimum temperature of 21.7oC. The average minimum and maximum amount of precipitation fluctuated between 0.01mm (2018) to 713 (1967) mm with an overall last 60 years mean rainfall of 160.63 mm. The adaptive capacity of these districts is low due to weak infrastructure and poor governance. The Human Development Index (HDI) of Thatta and Sujawal was 0.4 and 0.3 respectively. The Education Index for both districts was 0.3 and the values of the Health Index were 0.6 and 0.5 respectively. Similarly, the Living Standard Index of Thatta and Sujawal was 0.3 and 0.2 respectively. Climate change increases overall stress on resources, human insecurity and societal instability, which are likely to breed conflicts among farmers, fishermen and pastoralists. Political factors further prevent effective resource utilization; through capturing resources that aggregate vulnerability, increase a conflict risk and rendering the fragile region less resilient.