Cash Flow Certainty And Intraday Mean-Reversion Reliability

We present empirical evidence that the reliability of intraday mean reversion in U.S. Equity prices is strongly predicted by the certainty of the underlying company's cash flows. Using a systematic trading framework combining Time Segmented Volume (TSV) regime filtering with an exponential moving average fair value (FV) anchor, we test a single unoptimized parameter set across 22 liquid stocks spanning five sectors over 150 trading days (August 2025-March 2026). Energy midstream/infrastructure stocks, characterized by contracted, predictable cash flows, exhibit consistent mean-reversion behavior with risk-adjusted returns (Sharpe ratios 3.2-10.6) significantly exceeding those of consumer staples stocks with competitive, uncertain cash flows (Sharpe ratios-3.6 to 0.7). The finding is robust to the use of fixed parameters across stocks within a sector, eliminating curve-fitting concerns. We propose that institutional response to price dislocations is mediated by cash flow visibility: when future revenues are contractually secured, informed buyers treat price declines as temporary dislocations and act quickly, producing reliable mean reversion detectable via volume flow analysis. When cash flows are competitively determined, the same price declines may represent fundamental repricing, producing sustained directional moves that defeat mean-reversion strategies.