UNWTO World Tourism Barometer and Statistical Annex, January 2021

Tourism suffers its deepest crisis with a drop of 74% in 2020 in international arrivals Tourism suffered the greatest crisis on record in 2020 following an unprecedented health, social and economic emergency amid the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. International tourist arrivals (overnight visitors) plunged by 74% in 2020 over the previous year due to widespread travel restrictions and a massive drop in demand. The collapse in international travel represents an estimated loss of USD 1.3 trillion in export revenues - more than 11 times the loss recorded during the 2009 global economic crisis. Asia and the Pacific saw an 84% decrease in international arrivals in 2020, about 300 million less than in the previous year. The Middle East and Africa both recorded a 75% drop in arrivals. In Europe arrivals declined by 70%, representing over 500 million fewer international tourists, while the Americas saw a drop of 69%. The latest UNWTO Panel of Experts survey shows a mixed outlook for 2021. Almost half of respondents (45%) envisaged better prospects for 2021 compared to last year, while 25% expect a similar performance and 30% foresee a worsening of results. The overall prospects for a rebound in 2021 seem to have worsened. 50% of respondents now expect a rebound to occur only in 2022 as compared to 21% in October 2020. The remaining half of respondents still see a potential rebound in 2021, though below the expectations shown in the October 2020 survey (79% expected a recovery in 2021). Experts foresee growing demand for open-air and nature-based tourism activities, with domestic tourism and ‘slow travel’ experiences gaining increasing interest. Looking further ahead, most experts do not to see a return to pre-pandemic levels happening before 2023. In fact, 43% of respondents point to 2023, while 41% expect a return to 2019 levels in 2024 or later. UNWTO’s extended scenarios for 2021-2024 indicate that it could take between two-and-a-half and four years for international tourism to return to 2019 levels. The gradual rollout of a COVID-19 vaccine is expected to help restore consumer confidence, contribute to ease travel restrictions and slowly normalize travel during the year ahead.