Social and Ecological Impacts of Fire to Coastal Fisheries: A Study of the Kenai River Fishery (Alaska, USA)

Abstract In a rapidly changing environment where fires are becoming more frequent and severe, scientists and managers need information and tools to enhance understanding of the numerous ways in which fire can affect fisheries. We used Ostrom's social–ecological systems framework to structure the development and refinement of fuzzy cognitive maps with stakeholders across the Kenai River fishery in Alaska, USA. The process yielded a model characterizing the structure and function of the Kenai River fishery. The model was then used to guide interviews with stakeholders focused on the effects of the 2019 Swan Lake Fire. We identified seven direct pathways through which fire can affect the social and ecological components of a coastal fishery. We also used the model to guide a targeted literature review to further explore how fire can affect the components of the Kenai River fishery. This synthesis of information allowed us to develop a more complete understanding of the impacts of fire on the fishery—an understanding informed by input from local stakeholders (via our interviews) and relevant scientific and management literature (via our literature review). Lastly, we used the model to assess the fishery's vulnerability to fire. We discuss how early run Chinook Salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha constitute a highly vulnerable component of the system and have the greatest potential to impact the fishery as a whole through a chain of negative social and ecological interactions. This final step illustrates how the model can be used to assess the vulnerability of system components to specific threats. The model of the Kenai River fishery provides an empirically grounded and easily understood visual representation of the complex dynamics affecting coastal fisheries. As such, it can be used to structure discussions among managers and stakeholders, organize our understanding of how fire affects fisheries, and assess vulnerabilities to endogenous and exogenous stressors.