A worldwide analysis of ISO 9000 standard diffusion

Purpose To provide a cross‐section of International Standardization Organization (ISO) 9000 quality certification diffusion over time and its impact on industrial systems. Design/methodology/approach The starting point of the analysis is “The ISO survey of ISO 9000 and ISO 14001 certificates” document. Available data concur to trace a synthesis of what has happened and what is in process all over the world. Five main aspects are discussed: the correspondence between ISO 9000 standards and total quality management strategy; the effects of ISO 9000 certification on business performance; the ISO 9000 certificates diffusion in the world; the comparison between economical and entrepreneurial structure of different countries and certificates diffusion; the proposal of a prediction model for the diffusion of ISO 9000 certificates. Findings The evolution curve of the number of certificates over time in each country presents a “saturation effect.” This behavior has been analyzed by a diffusion forecasting model. The analysis of regional share certificates evolution evidences a sensible increase of Far East countries. The analysis of ISO 9000 certificates' share by industrial sector highlights a growth for the most sectors; only a few of them show a negative trend in last two years. A relationship between ISO 9000 certificates and socio‐economic indicators of a country (human development index, gross national product) has been individuated. Practical implications The stunning growth of ISO 9000 certifications all over the world confirms a strong polarization of enterprises' interest in this practice. Looking at the empirical data, some questions come out about the future. Will the certification market go on? Will certified enterprises continue to be interested to the certification process? Originality/value This paper analyzes the worldwide evolution of ISO 9000 certification and suggests a new prediction model for the diffusion of ISO 9000 certificates.