Reservoir Simulation: Past, Present, and Future

Abstract Reservoir simulation is a mature technology, and nearly all major reservoir development decisions are based in some way on simulation results. Despite this maturity, the technology is changing rapidly. It is important for both providers and users of reservoir simulation software to understand where this change is leading. This paper takes a long-term view of reservoir simulation, describing where it has been and where it is now. It closes with a prediction of what the reservoir simulation state of the art will be in 2007 and speculation regarding certain aspects of simulation in 2017. Introduction Today, input from reservoir simulation is used in nearly all major reservoir development decisions. This has come about in part through technology improvements that make it easier to simulate reservoirs on one hand and possible to simulate them more realistically on the other; however, although reservoir simulation has come a long way from its beginnings in the 1950's, substantial further improvement is needed, and this is stimulating continual change in how simulation is performed. Given that this change is occurring, both developers and users of simulation have an interest in understanding where it is leading. Obviously, developers of new simulation capabilities need this understanding in order to keep their products relevant and competitive. However, people that use simulation also need this understanding; how else can they be confident that the organizations that provide their simulators are keeping up with advancing technology and moving in the right direction? In order to understand where we are going, it is helpful to know where we have been. Thus, this paper begins with a discussion of historical developments in reservoir simulation. Then it briefly describes the current state of the art in terms of how simulation is performed today. Finally, it closes with some general predictions.