Urbanization and Industrialization in the Nišava District: A GIS Analysis of River Network Change (1983–2050)

Urbanization and industrialization have significantly transformed the hydrological systems of southern Serbia, especially in the Nišava and South Morava basins and the city of Niš. Over the past decades, rapid urban growth and industrial activity have altered river morphology, reduced the permanence of tributaries, and reshaped drainage networks. Using GIS and Remote Sensing methods, including high-resolution DEMs, census data, and cartographic archives, this study analyzes urban–river interactions from 1983 to 2023, with projections to 2050.Results show that Niš, strategically located along the Nišava and South Morava corridors, has experienced substantial urban expansion, leading to increased surface runoff, erosion risks, and degradation of riparian ecosystems. The Nišava River has undergone fragmentation of its natural dendritic system, while the South Morava has become a central axis of metropolitan and industrial development. Projections to 2050 highlight intensified risks of floodplain encroachment, declining groundwater recharge, and further deterioration of water quality. The findings emphasize the urgent need for integrated basin management and sustainable urban planning in Niš and its surrounding river valleys. Balancing economic growth with ecological resilience is essential to preserve hydrological stability and ensure long-term sustainability in the region.