Impact of Land Use Along the Line on Passenger Flow of Regional Railways

With the acceleration of regional integration, the trend of Chinese megacities evolving into metropolitan areas and urban agglomerations has become increasingly evident. Traditional transportation modes primarily designed for intra - city travel struggle to meet commuting demands between urban cores and surrounding towns. International experience demonstrates that regional (suburban) railways are crucial for addressing such demands and supporting the integration of metropolitan areas. Consequently, both central and local governments in China have prioritized the development of suburban railways, leading to an unprecedented wave of planning and construction in multiple megacities. However, operational lines often face challenges such as lower - than - expected passenger volumes, low commuting ratios, and severe financial losses.This study selects 16 operational suburban railway ilnes in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and international cities (Tokyo, Paris, London, New York) as research subjects. Utilizing quantitative and qualitative analysis methods, it explores key factors influencing passenger flow characteristics of suburban railways. The independent variables include the proportion of construction land, population density, land use functions, distance from the nearest station to the core urban center, and regional total population. Passenger flow intensity of suburban railways serves as the dependent variable. Pearson correlation analysis evaluates relationships between variables, followed by ordinary least squares (OLS) regression to construct interaction models. Finally, the study analyzes the impact of existing territorial spatial planning patterns (e.g., urban layout) and land use characteristics along railway lines on passenger flow and operational feasibility through case studies. The findings aim to provide insights for coordinating suburban railway planning with metropolitan spatial strategies in China.