Impacts of Climate Change on Lepidoptera Biodiversity in Iran: Insights from Long-Term Climate Data and GBIF Records

Abstract This study examined the impacts of climate change on Lepidoptera biodiversity across Iran’s ecoregions using Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF), observational records, and long-term climate data from 1993 to 2022. Biodiversity metrics were analyzed, and Generalized Linear Model (GLM) analysis were used to identify key climatic and ecological drivers of family richness. Spatial analysis revealed a mean family richness of 5.89 (SD=7.13) and a mean Shannon-Wiener Index of 0.83 (SD=0.93) across ecoregions. Biodiversity hotspots, such as the Caspian Hyrcanian mixed forests, Zagros Mountains forest steppe, and Elburz Range forest steppe, exhibited consistently high family richness (19, 17, and 16 families, respectively) and balanced family compositions. In contrast, arid ecoregions, including the Registan-North Pakistan sandy desert and Baluchistan xeric woodlands suffered from insufficient sampling, limiting biodiversity assessments. Temporal analyses revealed forested regions had relatively complete accumulation curves while arid and semi-arid regions displayed uneven and incomplete sampling. Comparative analyses demonstrated that GBIF documented 27 unique families out of 70 families in observational records. Negative Binomial GLM showed that temperature positively influenced family richness, while higher precipitation negatively impacted family-level distribution. Comparative analysis between GBIF data and observational records revealed complementary strengths. GBIF provided broad-scale trends, while localized surveys uncovered specialist families often overlooked in global datasets. These findings emphasize the need to prioritize conservation efforts in biodiversity-rich ecoregions and addressing sampling gaps in underrepresented areas to mitigate climate change impacts on Lepidoptera in Iran.