Temporal Patterns, Causes, and Risk Determinants of Lower Respiratory Infections in BRICS+ Countries: A Longitudinal Inter-Country Assessment of Disease Burdens

Abstract With the inclusion of new member states, nearly half of the world's population today residence in the BRICS + countries. However, no studies have systematically assessed the disease burden caused by lower respiratory tract infections (LRI) in these countries. Using data from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2019 and age-period-cohort models, we estimate the temporal patterns, causes, and risk determinants of LRI burden between 1990 and 2019. The findings showed BRICS + experienced a total of 256821260 LRI events, accounting for 52.5% of the global incidence (488902504), accounting for 34.2% of the global LRI deaths [2493199 (2736184 to 2268183)] In 2019. The age standardized mortality rate of LRIs in BRICS + countries ranged from 13.8 to 86.4 cases per 100,000 people. Local drift showed that the improvement was most pronounced in children. In terms of numbers, pneumococci are the common LRI type in all countries. In terms of risk factors, countries show strong heterogeneity. From 1990 to 2019, the burden of LRI generally decreased as SDI increased. The result shows that BRICS countries should strengthen cooperation and exchanges in health and provide better experience for other developing countries to reduce the burden of LRI.