Geographic distribution and impacts of climate change on the suitable habitats of Rhamnus utilis in China

Abstract Rhamnus utilis (Rhamnaceae) is an ecologically and economically important tree species. The growing market demands and recent anthropogenic impacts to R. utilis forests has negatively impacted its populations severely. However, little is known about the potential distribution of this species and environmental factors that affect habitat suitability for this species. By using 219 occurrence records along with 51 environmental factors, present and future suitable habitat were estimated for R. utilis using MaxEnt modelling; the important environmental factors affecting its distribution were analyzed. The results indicate that January water vapor pressure, the normalized difference vegetation index, mean diurnal range, and precipitation of the warmest quarter represented the critical factors explaining the environmental requirements of R. utilis. The potential habitat of R. utilis included most provinces from central to southeast China. Under climate change scenario SSP 245, MaxEnt predicted a cumulative loss of ca. 0.73 × 105 km2 for suitable habitat for R. utilis by the 2060s while an increase of ca. 0.65 × 105 km2 occurred in the 2010s. Furthermore, under this climate change scenario, the suitable habitat will geographically expand to higher elevations. The findings of our study provide a foundation for targeted conservation efforts and inform future research on R. utilis. By considering the identified environmental factors and anticipating the potential impacts of climate change, conservation strategies can be developed to preserve and restore suitable habitats for R. utilis. Protecting this species is not only crucial for maintaining biodiversity but also for sustaining the economic benefits associated with its ecological services.