The Impact of Future Climate on Faba Bean Crop Phenology and Yield in Kutaber Wereda, South Wollo Zone of North Eastern Ethiopia

Abstract Climate change's impact on Agriculture needs further investigation in Ethiopia, especially in Local varieties productivity. This investigation was conducted in the Kutaber area to model the impacts of climate change on the production of two faba bean (Vicia faba L.) varieties (Local and Ashenge). Future climate data were downscaled by using CMhyd downscaling and bias correction tools of GCMs (INM-CM4-8 and MRI-CESM2-0) by (2050s and 2080s) under SSP370 and SSP585. During the 2050s, a substantial increase of 27.2% and 30.9% in rainfall total is projected for the Belg (FMAM) season under SSP370 and SSP585, respectively. The kiremt (JJAS) seasonal rainfall will decrease by mid and end centuries under both scenarios. The rate of decrease in direct seasonal rainfall will be by 16.3%, 12.1%, and 16.6%, 15.2% in the 2050s and 2080s under SSP370 and SSP585 scenarios. For all GCMs, monthly Tmax will increase by about 1.2℃ to 1.6℃ under SSP370 by 2050s and 2.0℃ to 2.5℃ under SSP585 by 2080s in the future. Similarly, Tmin will increase by about 0.5℃ to 1.9℃ under SSP370 by 2050s and 2.1℃ to 3.4℃ under SSP585 scenarios (Figure 4.6). Performance evaluation of the model showed that it was able to predict future growth and yield faba bean varieties in the area with acceptable accuracy. The strong yield reduction simulated under the INM-CM4 model during the 2080s was about 42% and 50% for SSP370, whereas 40% and 30% in MRI-CESM2-0 scenarios respectively. Similarly, during the 2050s INM-CM4-8 model showed in the Ashenge variety a strong yield reduction of 34% and 26% under SSP370 and SSP585, respectively. There is also a strong decrease in the 2080s showing Local variety at 25% and 28% under SSP370 and SSP585, respectively. A strong decrease by 2050s showing Local variety by 24% and 19% under SSP370 and SSP585, and 14% by 2080s INM-CM4-8 model. Overall, the area will experience a decrease in faba bean yield for both varieties in the upcoming future in the study area. In addition to that climate variability and change affect the growth of the Faba bean, Days to flowering, and Days to physiological maturity. In INM-CM4-8 Model the flowering date shift from the current length of time (55 for Ashenge) and (51 for Local) to 49 and 47, in MRI-CESM-2-0 Model 48, 46 Days. The physiological maturity also shifts from 155 for Ashenge to 142 and 165 to 152 for Local variety.