Incident Liver Cirrhosis, Associated Factors, and Cardiovascular Disease Risks Among People Living With HIV: A Longitudinal Study

Objectives: We investigated the incidence and associated factors of liver cirrhosis and cardiovascular disease risks among people living with HIV (PLHIV) in a Thai cohort. Design: A prospective cohort analysis. Methods: Participants with at least one reliable transient elastography measurement during follow-up, who had pretreatment alanine transaminase, AST, and platelet count at HIV treatment initiation were included. Liver cirrhosis was defined as AST to Platelet Ratio Index >1.5 or fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) >3.25 or liver stiffness by transient elastography >12.5 kPa and confirmed by imaging or liver biopsy. Competing-risk regression was used to identify factors associated with liver cirrhosis. Time-updated 10-year atherosclerotic CVD (ASCVD) risks were compared between PLHIV with or without liver cirrhosis. Results: A total of 1069 participants (33% women, 9% hepatitis C virus, and 16% hepatitis B virus) with the median age and CD4 at cART initiation of 32 years and 240 cells/mm3 were included. During 8232 person-years, 124 (12%) developed liver cirrhosis after a median of 6.9 (2.4–13.7) follow-up years [incidence, 1.5 (95% confidence interval: 1.3 to 1.8) per 100 person-years]. In multivariable analysis, the factors independently associated with liver cirrhosis were time-updated HIV viremia, hepatitis B virus, and hepatitis C virus coinfection, diabetes mellitus, high-density lipoproteins <40 mg/mL, and d4T exposure. The median time-updated 10-year ASCVD risk score was statistically higher among cirrhotic PLHIV vs. noncirrhosis [4.9% (interquartile range, 2.3–9.7) vs. 2.4% (interquartile range, 1.3–4.9), P < 0.001]. Conclusion: PLHIV with metabolic diseases were more likely to develop liver cirrhosis, independent of hepatitis coinfections, and ASCVD risks were higher among cirrhotic individuals.