The Welsh Tax Base: Risks and Opportunities after Fiscal Devolution

Under the new Fiscal Framework and devolution of some tax powers, from April 2019, the Welsh Government and local authorities will control nearly £5 billion of tax revenues, equivalent to roughly 30 per cent of their combined current spending. In this report we have worked with the Wales Governance Centre at Cardiff University to examine the key characteristics of the Welsh tax base, the risks and opportunities to the Welsh tax base after fiscal devolution, and some of the implications for Welsh Government policy. It concludes that tax policy reform should be pursued in an integrated way, with all devolved and local taxes considered in the round. It also highlights that given the influence that wider policy areas like education and housing have on the economy, there are cross-departmental challenges for the Welsh Government to ensure it successfully manages the increased risk inherent to fiscal devolution.