Drivers and barriers of drought risk adaptation decisions by agro-pastoralists in Kenya

The Horn of Africa Drylands are increasingly experiencing severe droughts, which imposes a thread on traditional livelihood strategies of pastoralist communities. Understanding adaptation behaviour in rural communities is essential to help reducing the impact of these droughts. In this study, we identify drivers and barriers of drought risk adaptation decisions in pastoralist communities, by analysing household survey data from 502 Kenyan households. To provide theoretically sound insights into adaptive behaviour, we have grounded our empirical research in four established economic and psychological theories on decision-making under risk: Expected Utility Theory (EUT), Rank Dependent Utility Theory (RDU), Protection Motivation Theory (PMT) and Theory of Planned Behaviour (PMT). The variables of all theories are measured by multiple survey questions and we have included an economic experiment in the survey to measure the risk aversion parameters of Expected Utility Theory and Rank Dependent Utility theory. With regression models, we analyse the relation between the theory variables and adaptation behaviour. To measure adaptation behaviour, we have selected 15 different adaptation measures for which we asked about current uptake and the intention to adopt these measures in the future. Regression analyses show that important factors in adaptation decisions are risk attitudes, financial constraints, perceives self-efficacy and adaptation by family and friends.  An analysis of adaptation intention for each adaptation measure separately shows that drivers and barriers of adaptation are different for different types of adaptation measures. Risk-averse pastoralists are more likely to implement adaptation measures that are adjustments to current pastoral practices, and less likely to implement adaptation measures that require a (partial) shift to other livelihood activities. A person’s belief in their own ability to implement an adaptation measure (perceived self-efficacy) is an important factor in explaining which measure people are going to adopt. Furthermore, we find that some measures are more likely to be taken by women and others more likely to be taken by men and we find significant effects for differences in education levels. Our analysis can help to gain more knowledge on the drivers of individual adaptation decisions of pastoralists, which can enhance policies promoting adaptation of dryland communities. Our results indicate that drivers and barriers of adaptation can be quite different for different groups, which suggests that policies should be carefully targeted at specific groups.