Historical advancements in Indian monsoon forecasting: A review

The seasonal forecast is an important type of forecast in the agriculture sector particularly in India where the vast population relies on agriculture. Monsoon trade winds contribute to vast portion of Indian rainfall. Owing to its importance, the research activities on the prediction of the Indian monsoon started in ancient times and are carried over for the development of a perfect forecast system. India has bimodal rainfall with two major monsoons. The southwest monsoon contributes more with widespread rainfall over India and the northeast monsoon is the returning monsoon which brings dry wind to northern India and provides huge rain in southern India, particularly Tamil Nadu. Most of the work regarding monsoon has been con- centrated on southwest monsoon and less on northeast monsoon based on its importance. Over the years, several projects have been undertaken to enhance seasonal forecasting, with the Monsoon Mission being one of the most recent and significant initiatives aimed at improving prediction accuracy. Additionally, Agromet Advisory Services Bulletins have been developed using seasonal outlooks to provide tailored recommendations to farmers, helping them optimize agricultural practices based on forecasted conditions. This review highlights the advancements in seasonal forecasting, the regional focus on monsoons, and the role of these forecasts in supporting India’s agricultural sector.