Spatial Analysis and Visualization of School Enrollment in Somaliland: A Poisson regression model

Abstract This study examines the spatial distribution and determinants of primary school enrollment in Somaliland for the 2021/2022 academic year, using a Poisson regression model to analyze regional disparities and their relationship with school availability. The gross enrollment ratio (GER) stands at 34.03%, while the net enrollment ratio (NER) is significantly lower at 25.28%, highlighting challenges in enrolling children within the official school-age group. Results reveal substantial regional disparities in enrollment, with Maroodi-Jeex and Togdheer emerging as regions with the highest enrollments due to better access to urban educational infrastructure. Conversely, rural areas like Hawdand Xaysimo exhibit low enrollment rates, emphasizing challenges such as remoteness and limited school resources. The Poisson regression analysis underscores a significant positive association between the number of schools and total enrollment (p<2e-16), with each additional school contributing an approximate 0.88% increase in enrollment. However, urban schools show a negative relationship with total enrollment, suggesting complex dynamics in urban-rural resource allocation. Exceedance probability analysis identifies high-demand regions, such as Maroodi-Jeex and Togdheer, as areas requiring immediate intervention to address resource shortages. Discrepancies between actual and predicted enrollment further highlight the influence of unaccounted demographic and socioeconomic factors. This study underscores the critical role of educational infrastructure in shaping enrollment patterns across Somaliland. The findings provide actionable insights for policymakers to address regional disparities by improving access to schools in underserved rural areas and optimizing resource allocation in high-demand regions in Somaliland. The study's methodology and results contribute to broader discussions on educational equity and access in Sub-Saharan Africa.