Current and Future Characteristics of Land Use Based on FLUS Model - A Case Study of Foshan City, China

Abstract Land use change drives the process of urban pattern change. The development of urbanization will lead to the reduction of ecological land and the disappearance of ecological defense. Foshan is such a typical city. It is important to reveal the characteristics of dynamic land use changes and predict the future land use pattern. In this study, land use transfer matrix, standard deviation ellipse model, and center of gravity model were applied. Three representative years, 2010, 2015 and 2020, are used to analyze the characteristics of land use type, quantity change, and center of gravity structure change in Foshan City. Then, based on the FLUS model and Markov model, the land use data for 2015 and 2020 and a series of driving factors were used to simulate the land use of Foshan City in 2025 in multiple scenarios. The results show that: (i) from the time scale, the study area from 2010 to 2020 shows a trend of continuous increase of construction land and continuous decrease of ecological land; the fragmentation of ecological lands such as cultivated land, forest land, and grassland in Foshan with the time change is serious, and urban land patches are obviously increased. (ii) From the spatial scale analysis, it is found that the center of gravity of construction land shifts to the east, the center of gravity of forest land shifts to the northwest, and the center of gravity of cultivated land shifts to the southeast, and the center of gravity of water shifts to the east. (iii) According to the results of the Foshan City 2025 land use simulation, the overall urban land use pattern shows an eastward "core-edge" growth pattern. This study provides a reference for the sustainable development and scientific and rational planning of land use in Foshan City.