Scenarios for China’s Naval Deployment in the Indian Ocean and India’s Naval Response

Raja Menon, provides a Indian naval practitioner’s perspective on China’s vulnerabilities in the IO and how the Indian Navy would respond to China in the event of conflict. Menon argues that China’s 2015 Defence White Paper gives political clearance to (i) funding of the PLA Navy (PLAN) to become a world class navy, (ii) protection of its prime Sea Lines of Communication (SLOCs) including those in the IO, and (iii) eventual deployment of the PLAN whenever Chinese interests exist. The importance of Chinese SLOCs in the Indian Ocean are of such magnitude that a permanent Chinese presence in the ocean is a certain thing But importantly, Menon also emphasises on the consequences of Chinese shortcomings in maritime surveillance and strike capabilities and tactical air cover, as well as weaknesses in communications and logistics. China will find it difficult to overcome many of these shortcomings.