Assessing future fire and drought risk to the lake-wetland system in the Prespa National Park (Greece)

The Prespa Lakes (shared by Albania, Greece and North Macedonia) are a biodiversity hotspot of global significance, and its water resources are of regional importance for agriculture and tourism. The catchment is protected by national parks, as well as by the transboundary “Prespa Park”. However, the lakes and biodiversity are threatened by future climate change which is amplified by intensive human impacts (e.g., water abstraction, pollution, and dam-building). Cost-effective and nature-based adaptation strategies are urgently needed to protect biodiversity & water resources.The National Observatory of Athens (NOA) participates in research projects in the Prespa region since 2012. NOA transfers climate change knowledge to local decision makers and helps them design effective future-proof adaptation initiatives & strategies, in collaboration with the Society for the Protection of Prespa (SPP). The SPP is strongly involved in regional conservation management, through a network of stakeholders from all countries. The long-term collaboration between NOA and SPP is crucial for addressing regional climate change issues, disseminating information to local stakeholders, and implementing adaptation measures.NOA research focussed on the assessment of future climate change hazards & risks on the lake-wetland system and local economy. Hydrological drought conditions will increase in the future, forcing large inter-annual lake level variability and a long-term declining water level trend, affecting the quantity & quality of the water resources. Furthermore, climate change will increase wildfire hazards, both in wetland and upland forest settings. These changes will increase the risk of biodiversity losses. Furthermore, a risk assessment of future climate change impacts on bean cultivation (the key local cash-crop) found that present bean varieties will have lower future yields.These findings led to the [1] recommendation of introducing heat and drought-resistant bean varieties that are more water efficient, and the use of drip irrigation and wastewater recycling, and [2] development of guidelines making wetland management “climate proof” (i.e., sustainable & effective under future climate change). These new guidelines involve grazing and mechanical clearance of firebreaks in reedbeds, thus establishing bird foraging/fish-spawning areas under the lowest projected future water levels and protecting bird nesting sites under intensive future drought/fire conditions. Large quantities of plant material are also removed and used as fodder & fertiliser, consequently reducing the lake nutrient load and assisting the ecosystem to cope with climate change. Local farmers benefit from, and participate in, this arrangement, making management cost-effective and centred around local stakeholders.Public institutions involved in land management are weak in all three lake-sharing countries. Successful uptake of adaptation measures depends on involvement of active local organisations and stakeholders. Strengthening local civil society, and access to high-quality risk assessment data, are amongst the most important factors in implementing climate change adaptation measures. Keywords: Climate change, Lake Prespa, wetland, biodiversity, adaptation, conservation management