Climate Variability and Maize Production among Small-Scale Farmers in Gabiley, Somaliland

Abstract Agricultural production in developing countries, particularly those with vulnerable agroecological systems, such as Somaliland, is significantly challenged by climate change and variability. Political instability and poverty exacerbate these challenges. This study investigated the perceived effects of climate variability on maize production among small-scale farmers in the Gabiley District of Somaliland. Data was collected from hundred and ninety-one respondents through a questionnaire. Trend of Twenty Years Data from 2004–2023 was analyzed using the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test and Sen’s slope tests which showed downward trend of rainfall in Gabiley region over the past twenty years. also, maize data yield from 2012 to 2024 was analyzed using linear Trend analysis of regression. The maize yield has shown a declining trend over time, as indicated by the downward-sloping linear trendline. Simple linear and multiple regression analyses were employed to assess the impact of climate variability on maize yields. The results (R = .284 a , R 2  = .080, p = .001 b ). demonstrated that the overall climate variability had a statistically significant effect on maize production. In conclusion, this study underscores that recurrent drought is the primary climate-related factor that negatively influences maize production for small-scale farmers in the Gabiley District of Somaliland. The findings provide crucial information to stakeholders advocating the adoption of climate-smart agriculture in the Gabiley District. Recommendations include the implementation of drought-resistant crop varieties, water conservation techniques, crop diversification strategies, policy support initiatives, and continued research on climate adaptation strategies.