Regional import substitution policy amid economic sanctions: The case of the Republic of Tatarstan

The exhaustion of the traditional raw material export model, which results in a growing dependence of the core economic industries on imported goods and components, makes it increasingly relevant to develop tools for finding promising areas of import substitution. The paper proposes a methodology for assessing imported commodity groups to identify the priority areas for import substitution in a region. The theoretical framework of the study includes comparative and competitive advantage theories, as well as the concepts of production concentration, clusters, and industrial complexes. The research methods of economic-statistical, structural analyses and clustering were applied. The statistical data were retrieved from the Federal Customs Service of the Russian Federation, the Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat), and the Unified Interdepartmental Statistical Information System (EMISS). The proposed methodology was tested using the case of imports and exports in the Republic of Tatarstan in 2013–2021. We identified four key commodity clusters for import substitution, which account for more than 40 % of the region’s current imports, these are 1) the important localized import-dependent commodity groups a) having potential for import substitution in the region (tools, petroleum products), b) promising for import substitution in the RF (equipment and mechanical devices, furniture), as well as 2) the important non-specific import-dependent commodities a) having potential for import substitution (paints, electrical machines), and b) promising for import substitution (milk, clothing). The largest producers of the Republic of Tatarstan were identified for each cluster. Matrix modeling showed that some commodity groups are positioned in the area of the region’s low specialization, low localization and share of imports, which are typically grouped into three additional clusters that do not require enhanced policy on import substitution: growing import-dependent goods (grain, etc.), goods requiring no particular attention (silk, wool, etc.), and significant import-dependent goods (essential oils, etc.). The research findings can be used by regional ministries and departments when making strategic decisions on import substitution.