Energy Geopolitics in the Arctic: A Scenario-Based Strategic Analysis

The Arctic represents a critical theater where accelerating ice melting, vast resource potential, and great power competition converge to reshape global strategic dynamics. This paper provides a comprehensive, theory-driven analysis of Arctic geopolitics through the classical geostrategic frameworks. Mackinder’s Heartland, Spykman’s Rimland, and Mahan’s Sea Power theories, examining policies of key state- and non-state-actors. Russia and China leverage a fusion of Heartland and Sea Power doctrines to establish a formidable, sanctions-resistant strategic axis, contrasted with the Western coalition’s Rimland-based approach hampered by coordination challenges and investment deficits. Using scenario modeling, we project four plausible regional power distributions through 2035. Findings indicate that absent dramatic Western strategic commitment, Sino-Russian dominance of the Eastern Arctic is most probable, driven by irreversible first-mover advantages from operational expertise and multi-billion-dollar infrastructure investments. This creates a new geopolitical equilibrium with profound implications for global energy security and international relations. The study directly addresses a critical gap in energy strategy research by integrating geostrategic theory with quantitative energy infrastructure assessment, offering a predictive framework for how Arctic energy resources will be controlled, transported, and distributed under competing geopolitical alignments. These resources, comprising 13% of global undiscovered oil and 30% of natural gas reserves, represent a globally significant energy endowment whose governance will be shaped by the interplay of Eastern and Western bloc positioning. The analysis demonstrates that the Arctic energy competition carries direct implications for Sustainable Development Goal 7 (Affordable and Clean Energy), as the consolidation of energy supply routes under Eastern bloc control fundamentally reshapes global energy affordability, reliability, and access pathways.