On The Dynamics of Interstate Diffusion of Firearm Violence and Impact of Firearm Regulations

AbstractObjectivesOur purpose was to test the impact of firearm regulations on the firearm violence flow across US state borders. Further we assessed the spatial variations in these impacts across different regions with the goal of identifying state-groups that are especially vulnerable to cross-border firearm violence.MethodsIncidence of firearm violence (2000-2017) has been modelled as an inhomogeneous diffusion process whose parameters depend on state firearm regulations. Firearm regulations measurement for a state accounted for all 14 law categories across 54 states since 1991 as per State Firearm Law Database. The effects of regulations and other covariates were estimated across all states.ResultsSix clusters of states were identified based on the variations of effects within and across those clusters. For 3 of these clusters the diffusive flow parameters were statistically significant. In all of these clusters the deterring effect of regulations on incidence and flow of crime was statistically significant.ConclusionThe clusters can be assigned to 5 descriptive categories based on their roles in the flow of firearm violence – Source states, Transitive states, Destination states, Isolated issue states and Stable. It was found that flow of firearm violence indeed does follow a diffusive process for most categories of states. It has also been recommended that while in-state regulations are important to curb firearm violence flowing into Destination states, they are not adequate unless regulatory stringency is also applied to neighboring Source and Transitive States.