Spatially explicit statistical modeling of random and systematic land cover transitions in the main grassland plain of Nech Sar National Park, Ethiopia

AbstractThe main grassland plain of Nech Sar National Park (NSNP) is a federally managed protected area in Ethiopia designated to protect endemic and endangered species. However, like other national parks in Ethiopia, the park has experienced significant land cover change over the past few decades. Indeed, the livelihoods of local populations in such developing countries are entirely dependent upon natural resources and, as a result, both direct and indirect anthropogenic pressures have been placed on natural parks. While previous research has looked at land cover change in the region, these studies have not been spatially explicit and, as a result, knowledge gaps in identifying systematic transitions continue to exist. This study seeks to quantify the spatial extent and land cover change trends in NSNP, identify the strong signal transitions, and identify and quantify the location of determinants of change. To this end, the author classifies panchromatic aerial photographs in 1986, multispectral SPOT imagery in 2005, and Sentinel imagery in 2019. The spatial extent and trends of land cover change analysis between these time periods were conducted. The strong signal transitions were systematically identified and quantified. Then, the basic driving forces of the change were identified. The locations of these transitions were also identified and quantified using the spatially explicit statistical model. The analysis revealed that over the past three decades (1986–2019), nearly 52% of the study area experienced clear landscape change, out of which the net change and swap change attributed to 39% and 13%, respectively. The conversion of woody vegetation to grassland (~ 5%), subsequently grassland-to-open-overgrazed land (28.26%), and restoration of woody vegetation (0.76%) and grassland (0.72%) from riverine forest and open-overgrazed land, respectively, were found to be the fully systematic transitions whereas the rest transitions were recorded either partly systematic or random transitions. The location of these most systematic land cover transitions identified through the spatially explicit statistical modeling showed drivers due to biophysical conditions, accessibility, and urban/market expansions, coupled with successive government policies for biodiversity management, geo-politics, demographic, and socioeconomic factors. These findings provide important insights into biodiversity loss, land degradation, and ecosystem disruption. Therefore, the model for predicted probability generally suggests a 0.75 km and 0.72 km buffers which are likely to protect forest and grassland from conversion to grassland and open-overgrazed land, respectively.