TEMPERATURE VARIABILITY AND BIRTH RATE DYNAMICS IN NASARAWA STATE, NIGERIA: A 21-YEAR TIME SERIES ANALYSIS

This study examined the relationship between temperature variability and birth rate dynamics in Nasarawa State, Nigeria, over a 21-year period (2002–2023). The aim was to determine whether long-term and seasonal temperature patterns influence reproductive outcomes, including birth rates and seasonal fertility trends. A quantitative longitudinal time-series design was employed. Monthly temperature data were obtained from meteorological stations in Lafia, Akwanga, and Keffi, while birth records were sourced from selected healthcare facilities across the state. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics, seasonal decomposition, and Analysis of Variance (ANOVA), a statistical technique used to test whether significant differences exist between group means. The findings revealed stable long-term temperature patterns with no statistically significant inter-annual variation (F = 0.185, p > 0.05), although clear seasonal temperature cycles were observed. Birth rates exhibited pronounced seasonal variation, with peak births occurring between April–May and September–October, and lower rates in January and July. Annual birth trends showed an overall increase across the study period, reflecting demographic growth and improved healthcare access. The study concludes that while long-term temperature changes were minimal, seasonal temperature variability plays an important role in shaping reproductive seasonality. It is recommended that reproductive health planning integrate seasonal demographic patterns to improve maternal healthcare resource allocation and service delivery.