Analysis of Orbit Accuracy for Non-cooperative Earth-Orbiting Objects

Abstract The atmospheric resistance and solar radiation pressure are the main sources of non-gravitational perturbations in orbit determination and prediction of non-cooperative earth-orbiting objects. The calculation of both perturbation accelerations involves the satellite’s surface-mass ratio. Another factor affecting the accuracy of orbit determination and prediction is the sparse observation. In this paper, we examine the sensitivity of orbit prediction accuracy and orbit decay rate relative to surface-mass ratio. The influence of the space-based angle data to orbit determination was also analyzed. The results show that the error of orbit prediction is multiplied by the change of surface–mass ratio. The orbital error determined by using 7-minutes single-station ground-based radar data and 15-minutes double-space-based angle measurements is 63.77 m lower than that only determined by using single-station ground-based radar data. The space-based angle information greatly improves the observation geometry of the non-cooperative target and improves the precision of orbit determination. The position error of the inclined geosynchronous satellite determined by 3-days ground-based radar data is 323.49 m and the prediction error of 1-7 days is less than 1.0 km. Using 3-days ground-based radar data and single spaced-based angle measurement to determine the orbit of the medium-orbit satellite with an altitude of about 1000 km, the orbital accuracy is 14.66 m and the prediction error of 1-7 days is less than 50.00 m. To determine the orbit of the 280 km height satellite with, 1.5-days ground-based radar data and single space-based angle data, the position error is 270.37 m and the prediction error of 1-day is 1.70 km.