CHANGES IN STRATIFICATION IN ONONDAGA LAJKE, NEW YORK1

ABSTRACT: The calibration of a mixed‐layer stratification model to the complex stratification region of Onondaga Lake is documented. The short‐ and long‐term impacts of the closure of an adjoining alkali plant on the stratification regime of Onondaga Lake are evaluated with this model from the perspective of natural variations associated with meteorological variability. Chemical stratification prevailed in the lake during the operation of the facility as a result of its discharge of ionic waste. A predicted likely short‐term impact of the closure, that was subsequently observed, was the failure of the lake to turn over in the spring immediately following the closure. Spring turnover did not occur regularly during the operation of the facility; but turnover can be expected to occur regularly in the future. Other projected changes in average stratification conditions include: 1) a 45% shorter period of stratification, 2) a 3m deeper upper mixed layer, and 3) a 30% lower maximum density gradient. Substantial variability in the stratification is predicted as a result of meteorological variability, indicating that comparison of characteristics for individual years during and after the operation of the facility could be misleading. The changes in the stratification regime are expected to affect water quality. In particular, certain features of the oxygen resources of the hypolimnioa are expected to improve (e.g., delayed onset of anoxia).