Detecting long-term effects of mining-induced ground deformation on plant patterns in semi-arid areas using a cellular automata model

Abstract Contexts Mining-induced ground deformation has various effects on different plant communities. However, little is known about the effects of ground deformation on plant patterns after spontaneous succession, and there is currently no quantitative approach to the detection of these long-term effects. Objectives A plant community succession model (PCSM) based on cellular automate was developed, and the 30-year plant succession within a subsidence area in the Yungang mining area in China under mining and non-mining scenarios, as well as under two sets of initial conditions (plant-covered and bare), were simulated and compared. Methods The normalized mean square error (NMSE) was applied to test the accuracy of the PCSM and to reveal the effects of ground deformation at the patch scale, which was 0.06–0.59 for simulated and observed plant patterns. Six landscape indicators (contagion index (CONTAG), patch cohesion index (COHESION), landscape division (DIVISION), Shannon’s diversity index (SHDI), Shannon’s evenness index (SHEI), and aggregation index (AI)) were calculated for the mining and non-mining scenarios and compared to reveal the effects at the landscape scale. Results The results show that the DIVISION, SHDI, and SHEI were significantly higher in the mining scenario than in the non-mining scenario under plant-covered conditions; while the DIVISION was greater for the mining scenario than for the non-mining scenario, indicating that the ground deformation resulted in a loose, separated, and mixed plant pattern. The dynamics of the plant coverages and patterns in the two scenarios reflect the negative and positive effects of ground deformation on the tree and shrub communities, respectively. In terms of the shrub and tree communities, the NMSEs fluctuated at a high level under bare conditions, especially at the patch scale of 10 × 10 m, for which it was maintained at >0.5. Conclusion Overall, the mining-induced ground deformation chronically influenced the plant succession by limiting tree communities and promoting shrub communities, and it led to a heterogenous plant pattern. The results of this research provide a reference for detecting the long-term effects of mining-induced ground deformation on plant patterns, and they also provide insights into the effects of underground mining on different plant communities.