Projecting future growth of Yesso scallop (Patinopecten yessoensis) under climate change in the Changhai sea area, China

Climate change is expected to alter temperature and food availability in Yesso scallop farming areas, thereby affecting scallop growth. In this study, the annual growth characteristics of scallops are simulated from 1990 to 2100 using a dynamic energy budget (DEB) model forced by bias-corrected outputs from the CMIP5 climate model under three representative concentration pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5). The analysis focused on average sea surface temperature (SST), particulate organic carbon (POC) concentration, and scallop biomass across four time slices: 1990–2005 (historical baseline), 2016–2035 (near-term), 2046–2065 (mid-term), and 2076–2100 (long-term). Results show that SST increases most rapidly under RCP8.5, while POC declines in all scenarios, opposite to the SST trend. Compared to the historical period, average scallop biomass under RCP2.6 (RCP4.5, RCP8.5) is projected to decrease by 10.48% (5.45%, 9.85%) in 2016–2035, 9.41% (12.39%, 18.97%) in 2046–2065, and 11.75% (16.68%, 30.6%) in 2076–2100. A significant negative correlation (r = 0.98) between biomass and the number of restricted growth days (RGD; days with temperature <0°C or >20°C) indicates that RGD is the primary factor limiting scallop growth. These findings provide scientific support for future aquaculture planning and management in the Changhai sea area.