Prognostic Factors for Aggravated Vascular Damage in Takayasu Arteritis

Abstract Background. Takayasu arteritis is a rare disease characterized by inflammation in the aorta and its branches. Some patients were discovered to suffer the aggravated vascular damage (AVD), monitored by imaging techniques, even with the anti-inflammation treatment. But the overall characteristics and prognostic factors of AVD remained unclear yet. Methods. From the living East China Takayasu arteritis cohort, patients who underwent at least two magnetic resonance angiography (MRA) examinations at Zhongshan Hospital from April 2009 to April 2019 were enrolled as the derivation cohort to describe the characteristics of AVD and explore the prognostic factors of AVD in MRA. An independent group of patients from May 2019 to July 2020 comprising the validation cohort were used to validate the nomogram formed by these prognostic factors. Results. Among 235 enrolled patients, 69 patients (29.4%) suffered AVD with the median follow-up of 14 months. The limb arteries and vascular stenosis were the most common vascular location and manifestation of AVD respectively. Patients with AVD were younger, had higher complement 4 levels at baseline, and lower disease remission rate at 6 months. Cox regression analysis revealed that younger age (HR: 0.25-0.42, 95%CI: 0.09-0.91), higher CRP levels (HR = 2.57, 95%CI: 1.51–4.36) at baseline, and lower remission rate at 6 months (HR = 0.36, 95%CI: 0.21–0.64) were significant predictors. In the validation cohort of 65 patients, 19 cases had AVD. The predictive nomogram based on these factors achieved C-indices of 0.745 and 0.641 in the derivation and validation cohort respectively.Conclusions. Totally, 29.4% of patients suffered AVD, which manifested as vascular stenosis in limb arteries mainly. Younger age, higher CRP at baseline, and lower disease remission rate at 6 months were prognostic factors for AVD.