Transformation of Modern Wars in the South Caucasus: Azerbaijan's Hybrid War Against Artsakh

The Third Artsakh war has dramatically transformed the security environment in the South Caucasus. Being a result and indicator of changing world order, it unleashed the parameters of the newly-developing formats of conflicts, confrontations, and wars, called hybrid warfare. From this perspective the paper studies the parameters of hybrid warfare against Artsakh launched by Azerbaijan. Application of hybrid warfare against Artsakh is not a new phenomenon and has being practiced by Azerbaijan at least during the last 10-15 years. However, the results of the 44-day war has provided new framework, opportunities, and instruments to intensify hybrid operations, striving to maximize the results. Hence, the paper discusses the Azerbaijani strategy of hybrid war against Artsakh by analyzing the main strategies, tactics, instruments and tools used by Azerbaijan against Artsakh, specifically, after 44-day war. The paper argues that after the Third Artsakh war of 2020 Azerbaijan has launched a full scale hybrid operation to provide ethnic cleansing of Artsakh and receive ‘Nagorno-Karabakh without Armenians’. The operation was based on the following components: information-psychological campaign/influence operations (against Armenians in Artsakh), economic and energy aspects, ecological issues, blockade, international campaigns, support to split Armenian power (in Armenia and Armenian Diaspora), sabotage against critical infrastructure and population, and so on. Concluding the paper launches, a discussion about Azerbaijani engagement with Armenia after the ethnic cleansing of Artsakh of Autumn of 2023.