Prediction of the Breeding and Wintering Ranges of Pomacea canaliculata in China Using Ensemble Models

Pomacea canaliculata is a pest species of freshwater neotropical gastropod that has colonized the coastal regions of southern China since the 1980s and has expanded its range into temperate regions of the Yangtze River Basin. The breeding and overwintering populations of P. canaliculata have increased during its gradual northward expansion over the past 40 years. There is a high likelihood that P. canaliculata can overwinter in areas conducive to breeding due to the impacts of a changing climate. Yet, the potential future changes in the range of P. canaliculata and associated climatic determinants remain unclear. This study examined the relationship between the limits of geographic distribution and key climate variables determining suitability for P. canaliculata breeding and wintering periods using the ensemble species distribution models from the R package BIOMOD2. Future climate suitability and changes were assessed under two representative concentration pathways (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). The predictions indicated that P. canaliculata is most sensitive to monthly minimum temperature and that this species will extend its breeding range towards northern latitudes and will establish increased wintering locations in China. The predictions for both breeding and overwintering populations suggest a northward shift in the most suitable habitat, a reduction of highly suitable areas in the south, and an increase in suitable areas along the center and east of the Yangtze River Basin extending further northwards. Within the context of an overall expansion in P. canaliculata and climate warming, there should be a focus on the center of the Yangtze River Basin in which this species can overwinter for breeding only. Early monitoring and proactive measures to effectively prevent further spread of this species should be prioritized in this region characterized by abundant rice cultivation and fish breeding.