Quantification and Analysis of Factors Influencing Territorial Spatial Conflicts in the Gully Region of the Loess Plateau: A Case Study of Qingyang City, Gansu Province, China

The gully region of the Loess Plateau is among the most ecologically fragile areas in China, where rapid urbanization and unique geographical characteristics have intensified territorial spatial conflicts. Characterizing the spatial evolution and the factors driving these conflicts is crucial for promoting sustainable development in the region. This study utilizes land use remote sensing data from 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2020 to examine the evolution of territorial spatial conflicts in Qingyang City, Gansu Province. A transfer probability matrix and a comprehensive spatial conflict index model were employed, coupled with the optimal parameter geographical detector (OPGD) model, to identify key influencing factors. Our findings reveal significant regional differences in spatial patterns, with ecological and urban spaces expanding while agricultural land contracted. Over time, the intensity of spatial conflicts has increased, particularly in the central urban area of Xifeng District and the urban-rural fringe. The main driving factors identified include the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), land use intensity, and annual average precipitation, with land use intensity becoming increasingly influential in recent decades. These results provide valuable insights for future territorial spatial planning and management in Qingyang City.