Spatiotemporal evolution characteristics and trend prediction of the fertility level of women of childbearing age in China

Abstract Objective The purpose of this study is to understand the temporal trends and spatial distribution characteristics of the fertility rate of women of childbearing age in China and 31 provincial-level administrative regions from 2008 to 2022, and to make projections of future trends in the fertility rate. Methods Statistical data related to fertility were collected from 2008 to 2022 for China and 31 provincial administrative regions (except Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan). Statistical descriptions of the fertility situation were made in both spatial and temporal dimensions to understand its spatial and temporal distribution; the future trend of fertility was predicted by using the ARIMA projection model of time series analysis, and the spatial autocorrelation analysis was used to explore its spatial aggregation characteristics. Results From 2008 to 2022, the fertility level of women of childbearing age in China has been in a long-term depression and there is a trend of continued decline, with the phenomenon of delayed childbearing evident in the population of childbearing age. The spatial pattern shows a gradual decrease from south to north.China, as well as the three major regions of the East, Centre and West, will reach their lowest point in 2023, followed by a slow recovery and a gradual stabilisation in the following decade, but will still be at a relatively low level of fertility as a whole;while in the Northeast, fertility levels will continue to decline and will be in a state of negative growth in 2036. There is a positive spatial autocorrelation of fertility levels across provinces,and the characteristics of the spatial agglomeration of fertility levels vary from region to region. Conclusion The results of this study show that the fertility level of women of childbearing age in China continues to be low, and is expected to remain at a very low fertility level for a long time to come. Individualised recommendations are made for future development trends in different regions to create a fertility-friendly social environment and promote long-term balanced population development.