City traffic flow breakdown prediction based on fuzzy rough set

Abstract In city traffic management, traffic breakdown is a very important issue, which is defined as a speed drop of a certain amount within a dense traffic situation. In order to predict city traffic flow breakdown accurately, in this paper, we propose a novel city traffic flow breakdown prediction algorithm based on fuzzy rough set. Firstly, we illustrate the city traffic flow breakdown problem, in which three definitions are given, that is, 1) Pre-breakdown flow rate, 2) Rate, density, and speed of the traffic flow breakdown, and 3) Duration of the traffic flow breakdown. Moreover, we define a hazard function to represent the probability of the breakdown ending at a given time point. Secondly, as there are many redundant and irrelevant attributes in city flow breakdown prediction, we propose an attribute reduction algorithm using the fuzzy rough set. Thirdly, we discuss how to predict the city traffic flow breakdown based on attribute reduction and SVM classifier. Finally, experiments are conducted by collecting data from I-405 Freeway, which is located at Irvine, California. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed algorithm is able to achieve lower average error rate of city traffic flow breakdown prediction.