How Target-State Agency Shapes Geoeconomic Influence: Insights from Sino–North Korean Relations

Abstract: In this article we examine how target-state agency shapes the effectiveness of geoeconomic instruments, using Sino–North Korean relations as a case study. Building on Wigell's (2016) geoeconomic framework, we incorporate the response strategies of target states to address the framework's limited consideration of agency. By tracing the evolution of China's geoeconomic measures toward North Korea since 2009, the study evaluates both the structural constraints on China's influence and North Korea's strategic responses. The findings suggest that geoeconomic influence depends not only on the initiating state's capabilities, but also—critically—on the target state's political priorities and calculated responses. North Korea's sustained resistance has significantly weakened China's policy influence, highlighting the decisive role of target-state agency in geoeconomic interactions. Hence, consistent with relevant UN Security Council resolutions and sanctions, the international community should explore more flexible pathways for economic engagement with North Korea.