Frits Fahridws Damanik

ABSTRACTChili is one of the leading commodities of vegetables which has strategic value at national and regional levels.An unexpected increase in chili prices often results a surge of inflation and economic turmoil. Study and modeling ofchili production are needed as a planning and evaluation material for policy makers. One of the most frequently usedmethods in modeling and forecasting time series data is Autoregressive Integrated Moving Avarage (ARIMA). Theresults of ARIMA modeling on chili production data found that the data were unstationer conditions of the mean sothat must differenced while the data on the production of small chilli carried out the stages of data transformation anddifferencing due to the unstationer of data on variants and the mean. The best ARIMA model that can be appliedbased on the smallest AIC and MSE criteria for data on the amount of chili and small chilli production in CentralKalimantan Province is ARIMA (3,1,0).Keywords: modeling of chilli, forecasting of chilli, Autoregresive Integrated Moving Avarage, ARIMA, Box-Jenkins.