Blue Green Infrastructure in a future climate: can we reduce combined sewer overflows?

In response to climate change and growing ecological threats, many cities are planning to increase the resilience of urban drainage systems, including the reduction of combined sewer overflows (CSOs) - one of the leading causes of surface water pollution. Blue green infrastructure (BGI) are growing in popularity to do so, and recent studies have made progress to evaluate the potential of BGI to eliminate CSOs. However, current research tends to consider a limited number of individual BGI elements and scenarios, often overlooking different combinations (e.g., bioretention basins combined with green roofs) and uncertainty in a future climate. The aim of this research is to evaluate the ability of a range of blue green infrastructure combinations to reduce CSOs under multiple future climate scenarios.A hydrological simulation model, EPA SWMM, is used to simulate the performance of a 95-hectare combined sewer system near Zurich, Switzerland. Four types of BGI are evaluated, including bioretention basins, porous pavements, green roofs, and stormwater ponds. The potential surface availability for each BGI element was quantified using GIS and LiDAR data, yet scenarios include a range of different implantation rates for each type. Combinations of BGI element types are generated by combining different implementation surfaces to the share of the BGI type (e.g., 20% of the available surface with the same share of bioretention basins, porous pavements and green roofs, etc.).Bioretention basins are assumed to be implemented on pervious surfaces (i.e., gardens, traffic islands), porous pavements on impervious surfaces (i.e., sidewalks, cycling lanes) and green roofs on flat roof buildings. Observed rainfall data (1990-2019) are used to simulated the baseline conditions, while more than five bias-corrected future rainfall timeseries (2070-2099) from EURO-CORDEX regional climate models (RCP 8.5) are used to represent a worst-case future climate. CSO Volume, duration and frequency are used to characterize system-wide CSO events across the seven outfalls.Preliminary results show that in a current climate, bioretention basins are most effective at reducing CSO volume, followed by porous pavements and green roofs. BGI do not relevantly reduce the duration and number of CSO events. In one future scenario, future precipitation is concentrated into shorter duration events, which consistently leads to shorter, higher intensity CSO events at a frequency similar to the historical record. Overall, the only scenario that can avoid an increase in future CSO volume is an extensive implementation of bioretention basins. Porous pavement and green roofs are less effective in a future climate because they can store limited amounts of water compared to bioretention basins. As rainfall intensities increase, the ability to retain large amounts of water will be the most effective. These results point to strategies with higher storage capacities to account for high-intensity rainfall events that are expected in the future. Future work will evaluate additional BGI elements, including urban ponds, and a more comprehensive set of BGI scenarios, future climate scenarios, and case studies, enabling a definition of guidelines and BGI design requirements at an urban scale for Switzerland.