Modeling Crop Production under Climate Change in Southeast Nigeria: Agroecology as a Response

Nations of the world have seen unprecedented changes in climate variables in recent decades. But it is unclear to what extent climate change has impacted and will impact food systems in some developing regions, and how policymakers can frame an approach to encouraging adaptation and advancing climate-smart agriculture. Many studies attempting to link agroecology to climate change adaptation do so without understanding the potential of Agroecology not only to mitigate climate change – which is the weak response – but to reverse its impact and ‘climate proof’ our food systems. By modeling the near and far future impacts of climate change on crop production, we showed how climate will impact crop production under two crop production systems (agroecology and non-agroecology production systems). The overarching aim is to derive sustainable development strategies and lessons for policymakers and climate researchers - essential components of environment and Agricultural development. Using case studies from Nigeria, we observed that transitioning to agroecology, even at the farm level also transforms farm designs, thereby affecting their overall food and nutrition status. The result showed that the use of agroecology management practices not only reduces the impact of climate change in the near future but will also lead to increased crop yield in the future. The finding suggests that to feed the over 400 million projected population of Nigeria by 2050, the use of agroecological practices will be a better alternative to the conventional farming methods. To advance the use of agroecological farming methods, governments at every level in Nigeria need to mainstream organic agriculture in national government policies. This is important as it will not only address climate change impacts but also hunger and poverty.