Journey without Maps

This chapter brings quantitative and qualitative empirics to bear on the relationship between environmental predictability, navigation strategy, and international development organization (IDO) Project Success. The chapter first examines quantitative data on IDO Project Success, as environmental unpredictability varies along with the role that the Navigation by Judgment propensity plays in this relationship. It then turns to qualitative cases, which compare U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) and U.K. Department for International Development (DFID) performance in Liberia’s unpredictable environment as both IDOs attempt to achieve similar goals in health and government capacity-building interventions. The discussion draws on the quantitative Project Performance Database and two pairs of case studies comparing USAID and DFID projects in relatively unpredictable Liberia. The chapter finds that Navigation by Judgment is associated with relatively better project performance in unpredictable contexts.